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Roger Federer’s at that stage of his career where anything less than a title would be a surprise

It’s fun to think of the Pacific Life Open in Indian Wells, California as a hopeful global gathering. Through the early part of the year, players on both the ATP and the Sony Ericsson WTA Tours have trekked through Australia, Asia, Europe and both North and South America. Now, at an event just a shade short of the significance of a Grand Slam, they converge in the desert. Amid deliciously dry desert conditions, each player knows there are major goodies to be had with a fine showing in Indian Wells.

In an interesting turn of events, the men’s circuit now has a dominator, while it’s the women who spread the wealth. Obviously, Roger Federer’s at that stage of his career where anything less than a title is a surprise. He comes into the desert out to capture a record third straight title. But he’s also scratched for form during his title runs at the Australian and U.S. Opens. Is he for the taking? Doubtful. Rafael Nadal has been struggling with injuries, so even if he shows up in the desert he’ll likely be stale. I also wonder if Federer’s familiar set of challengers – Lleyton Hewitt, Andy Roddick, Marat Safin – have what it takes to press the Swiss now that they’ve made their efforts and been unsuccessful. Hewitt’s commitment is always clear, but does he have enough juice? Roddick’s serve and forehand have taken him very far, but can he enhance his game? And Safin, well, will he even show up?

The contenders - Lleyton Hewitt, Rafael Nadal, and Tommy Haas.

In the desert I’ll be paying close attention to surprise Aussie finalist Marcos Baghdatis, ascending Croatian Ivan Ljubicic, athletic German Tommy Haas, versatile Brit Andy Murray and the pesky but accomplished Federer nuisance, David Nalbandian. These half-dozen each have distinctive styles, from Baghdatis’ ability to grind and strike with exuberance to Ljubicic and Haas’ powerful backhands and athleticism to Murray and Nalbandian’s distinctive aptitude for disrupting the other guy’s rhythm. Moreover, save for the teenaged Murray and the suddenly-prominent Baghdatis, for these other four nothing less than a semifinal effort at Indian Wells will be satisfying.

On the American front, it’s still uncertain who can join Roddick as a top ten mainstay. Encouraging as it was to see James Blake and Robby Ginepri improve last summer and fare well at the U.S. Open, each has played only moderately well in ’06, with Blake performing better but neither posting stellar results.

The Americans - Andy Roddick, James Blake, and Andre Agassi.

Much as I enjoy Taylor Dent’s netrushing game, his body breaks down too much to be counted on. I’m still not sure if Blake’s got enough consistent offense or if Ginepri’s got the mental fortitude to win events like Indian Wells and repeatedly go deep in Slams the way Roddick has for five years – or Agassi has for more than 15.

Martina Hingis figures to draw the most attention. It is a supreme delight to watch her work her allcourt guile.

Agassi, of course, is by now ready to be turned into a iconic statue. Once again, he surprised many with his run to the U.S. Open finals. And no doubt such actions as deciding to skip Roland Garros this year are the signs of a man carefully calculating where to best devote his resources. All that said, as he nears 36, can he even play with vigor on the slow hardcourts of Indian Wells? A year ago Agassi pulled out on the eve of an engaging quarterfinal matchup with Hewitt. He’s now an aging thoroughbred. Best advice: Enjoy him while you can. The only thing cleaner than the desert air is the quality of his groundstrokes, which I believe are the best forehand-backhand combo in tennis history (make my day with your pick).

The women’s field is strong, but not quite as deep as the men’s. The reason for this is that the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour has mandated that all players be entered in Key Biscayne, but not Indian Wells. Still, Indian Wells headliners include Martina Hingis, Lindsay Davenport, Maria Sharapova and Justine Henin-Hardenne.

Hingis figures to draw the most attention. It was a supreme delight to watch her work her allcourt guile on her way to the Australian Open quarterfinals, then follow it up by reaching the finals in Tokyo, a run highlighted by a 6-3, 6-1 pummeling of Sharapova – the kind of result that pleases anyone with a triple-digit IQ. Now that the buzz of her comeback has worn off, I’m intrigued to see if Hingis has the physical, emotional and mental fortitude to continue training and playing with enterprise rather than the caution she showed in the 1999-2002 period. I hope so.

The contenders - Justine Henin-Hardene, Maria Sharapova, and Lindsay Davenport.

As well as Davenport and Sharapova strike the ball, their tactical and physical limitations have been exposed much in the last year. A Southern California native, Davenport figures to feel quite comfortable on the Indian Wells hardcourts. Last year she double-bageled Sharapova in the semis. But I’m also wondering if after two high-quality yet frustrating years (no Slams), if Davenport’s starting to feel a bit of combat fatigue. As for Sharapova, her ambition is high, but in many ways she reminds me of Roddick: an incredibly willful player who can strike hard, but it’s uncertain if she’s got the skills or cojones (or need?) to diversify her game as she tries to reach the top.

Dementieva inherits the dubious title, the best women’s player without a Slam.

Henin-Hardenne is up there with Hingis as a fun player to watch. Say what you wish about her default in the Australian Open final, but she is one tenacious player, as evidenced by much of her career and, most recently in Australia, her back-to-back three-set wins over Davenport and Sharapova. Given her exceptionally persnickety physical condition, I wouldn’t be surprised if she pulled out of Indian Wells. If she comes to play, though, I expect her to go far.

Others to look out for: the Russian quartet of Svetlana Kuznetsova, Anastasia Myskina, Elena Dementieva and Nadia Petrova, each hoping to turn their fine groundstrokes into sustainable results. Kuznestova and Myskina, Grand Slam winners in ’04, suffered much last year and are still trying to get back on track.

Dementieva, probably the best women’s player without a Slam, smoked Hingis 6-2, 6-0 in Tokyo. Her balance, posture and movement are superb, even if her service motion makes a 4.5 player’s look like the second coming of Pete Sampras. Petrova to me remains perplexing. She has exceptional athleticism, knows how to play the net, but in the late stages of events her serve and forehand betray her. Add to this a flock of teens – Indian basher Sonja Mirza, powerful Czech Nicole Vaidisova and fluid Frenchwoman Tatiana Golovin.

Tennis One’s Joel Drucker first attended the Pacific Life Open when it was held at La Quinta in 1983.

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